One year in, the country is already falling behind. Builder collapses are rising, costs are soaring, and cranes are disappearing from city skylines.
In this episode of Property Now, host Michael Carbone talks with three key voices shaping Australia’s housing future:
- Eliza Owen, CoreLogic Head of Research and property economist
- Andrew Hrsto, Founder of ALAND and one of Sydney’s most active developers
- Chris Ferris, CEO of Coposit, helping more Australians buy property off the plan
Together, they unpack what’s gone wrong, what needs to change, and how buyers can still find a path into the market.
The National Target and the Reality
To meet the goal, Australia needs around 240,000 completions a year.In the first year, only about 175,000 homes were completed — a shortfall of 65,000.
According to ABS data shared in the discussion, the trend is heading downward. Even under stronger market conditions, Australia has never delivered more than a million completions in five years. The 1.2 million target was ambitious and is now slipping further out of reach.
Why Developers Can’t Make It Work
In many areas, the numbers no longer add up.
Andrew explains that developers face tight margins across Sydney, especially in Western Sydney. Construction costs are rising while sale prices have not caught up. Council fees and levies add even more pressure.
For many projects, by the time the builder factors in materials, labour, and finance, there’s little or no profit left. As a result, new development has slowed sharply in affordable suburbs — exactly where supply is most needed.
Construction Costs and Material Shortages
Eliza breaks down the key drivers behind rising costs:
- Global supply chain disruptions after the pandemic
- Record low interest rates and the HomeBuilder scheme driving excess demand
- Price surges in materials such as steel, timber, and concrete
- The war in Ukraine pushing up global raw material costs
Even now, many builders are paying far more for materials than before Covid. These increases have pushed project costs to record highs and delayed new builds across the country.
The Trade Shortage Holding Projects Back
The housing shortage is not just about money. It’s also about people.
Andrew and Chris highlight that Australia has too few qualified tradespeople to deliver projects on time. Fewer young people are choosing careers in plumbing, carpentry, or bricklaying. Many builders have closed since Covid, and the capacity lost will take years to rebuild.
Eliza adds that even with stronger investment in trade education, the effect won’t be felt immediately. The panel agrees Australia must encourage more apprenticeships and attract skilled migration targeted to construction trades.
Affordability and the Rent Squeeze
The lack of supply is hitting renters and buyers hard.
In Sydney, many tenants are facing rent increases of 30 to 40 percent. More people are leaving New South Wales for cheaper states.
Andrew raises a concern that Australia may be moving toward a future where most people rent from institutions, not individuals. Eliza notes that government tax concessions for build-to-rent projects are making institutional ownership more attractive.
Are Housing Policies Making Things Worse?
Government policies often focus on stimulating demand rather than fixing supply.
Programs like first home buyer incentives and five-percent deposit schemes help some people buy, but they also push prices up.
Eliza points to Victoria, where new investor taxes and vacancy charges have slowed price growth and slightly improved affordability. Still, these same measures can make new developments less viable.
The panel also discusses the mortgage serviceability buffer. Banks currently test borrowers at much higher rates than they actually pay. Andrew argues that this rule made sense when interest rates were low but now locks many capable buyers out of the market.
What Government Could Still Do
Chris believes the 1.2 million target is still worth chasing, even if it’s aspirational. He compares the government to a pilot with multiple levers to pull. Some may not work, but others could help.
The group discusses potential actions that could shift the balance:
- Temporary tax or GST incentives to make new builds viable
- Smarter, flexible lending buffers tied to interest rate cycles
- Investment in apprenticeships and vocational training
- Skilled migration aimed at the construction sector
- Easier qualification recognition across states
Eliza adds that government investment in social and affordable housing must increase if private developers can’t meet demand on their own.
What This Means for Home Buyers
For many Australians, the biggest issue is access. Home ownership feels out of reach, while rents keep rising.
This is where Coposit gives buyers a smarter way in. Coposit allows you to secure a brand-new property with $10,000 upfront, then pay the rest of your deposit in weekly instalments while it’s being built.
It’s an easier path for first home buyers looking to purchase off the plan, and it removes one of the biggest barriers to entering the property market — saving a full deposit before construction begins.
To explore how Coposit works and find projects across Australia, visit www.coposit.com.au.
Watch the Full Property Now Episode
This article captures only part of the discussion. The full conversation dives deeper into:
- Real data from CoreLogic on completions and prices
- Developer insights from ALAND on project feasibility
- Policy and affordability commentary from Coposit
